Liverpool and Newcastle go head-to-head in the Carabao Cup final today (Sunday), with the Magpies heavy underdogs as they face the Premier League leaders. Eddie Howe will be without his starting left-hand side – Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall – in a game where Newcastle will be hoping to lift a domestic trophy for the first time since 1955.
Being without Hall and Gordon on the left is undoubtedly a major blow for Newcastle, but ironically, it could actually be the area they look to exploit. Liverpool are set to be without Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley at right-back, leaving them with limited options, but opposition teams have had joy focusing Liverpool’s right side due to their setup, rather than the personnel involved.
Jurgen Klopp was well-known for his gegenpressing system, and Arne Slot has adopted some of the principles in his style. Liverpool still like to try and win the ball back high up the pitch under Slot, which has brought them plenty of success so far this season.
The Reds have won back possession in the final third 4.7 times per game in the Premier League, an impressive metric considering they are a side who like to dominate the possession and have the ball more than their opposition. Although this of course has its benefits, it can leave Liverpool exposed in transition.
When Liverpool press high up the pitch, they often leave plenty of space in behind, relying on the pace of Ibrahima Konate and Virgil Van Dijk to get back into position and win the ball back. Against PSG in the first leg of their round of 16 Champions League tie last week, PSG looked to exploit Liverpool’s high line. More specifically, they targeted the gaps between a centre-back and full-back, making it difficult for either defender to track the runner.
Alexander-Arnold often receives plenty of criticism for being out of position, but the space he vacates is usually due to him being asked to play further up the pitch, where he is more threatening. It’s not only on the right-hand side where Liverpool can be exploited. Slot likes his full-backs to push high, pressing opposition wingers regardless of where they are on the pitch.
The gaps Liverpool leave when allowing their full-backs to press out wide could suit Newcastle down to a T. Newcastle set up in their 4-3-3 system, and their midfield three aren’t the most traditional trio you’re likely to see. Although one player usually sits at the base of the midfield, they are certainly not restricted to just that, with the likes of Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes given plenty of license to get forward and ‘box crash’, for want of a better phrase.
Newcastle are going to be missing the natural pace in behind of Gordon on the left-hand side, and he’s likely to be replaced by Barnes. Although Barnes is far from sluggish, he’s a different profile of winger. One who is more likely to want the ball to their feet rather than in behind.
In order for Newcastle to try and get some joy against Liverpool without the pace of Gordon, we could see more intricate play in and around the final third, with the likes of Joelinton and Guimaraes making third-man runs into the box, underlapping or overlapping beyond Newcastle’s wingers.
Stretching the back line of Liverpool can be where Newcastle get success. The front three, which will likely be Jacob Murphy, Alexander Isak, and Harvey Barnes, can occupy the defenders by staying high and wide, and this is where Newcastle’s third-man runners from deep come into play. The Magpies arguably have the most energetic midfielders in the Premier League, and playing against Liverpool’s high-pressing system could see them have plenty of joy in behind.
Liverpool also now have the added worry of who is going to play at right-back. Jarell Quansah came off the bench when Alexander-Arnold was injured against PSG, but the youngster is naturally a central defender. With Liverpool already showing signs of weakness with natural full-backs, it’s going to be tricky for Slot to ask Quansah to step up and the Reds to be flawless at the back.
It’s difficult to pick too many holes in Liverpool’s side considering they are flying high at the top of the Premier League, but naivety has naturally crept in during certain games, particularly in the Champions League against PSG. Fluid movement in between the lines, third-man runs, and a front three who like to interchange but also keep plenty of width causes Liverpool a lot of problems over two legs.
Newcastle might not have the same quality as PSG in multiple areas of the pitch, but their high energy style coupled with a traditional front three will mean it’s not going to be an easy day at the office for Liverpool’s back four, especially with the inexperienced Quansah likely lining up at right-back.
We could also see Alexander Isak drifting to the left-hand side to try and double up with Barnes, with Mohamed Salah unlikely to track back and help out his full-back. This would then rely on the third-man runs from Joelinton and Guimaraes into the box, while Murphy can attack the back post.
To summarise, Liverpool’s weakness is when you stretch their back line, creating gaps between the centre-backs and full-backs. They are vulnerable when losing the ball high up the pitch due to their high line, and it’s an area Newcastle can look to exploit with pace in behind. It’s set to be an exciting and tactically interesting game on Sunday at Wembley Stadium, with key players out for both sides.
Written by APFA Member, Tactically Matt.
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